How many points?

FanFromThe90's
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How many points?

Post by FanFromThe90's » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:52 pm

As we are currently slap bang in the middle of the table we could clearly go either way over the rest of the season.
Unfortunately I've been away with work for the last few games and will be for the next few, so I may be a bit out of touch. However, based on our most recent form it looks like we have turned a corner and are starting to get some results. I wonder if losing Ward and Effiong has successfully forced some other players to step up, and opened a door of opportunity for some others, which contributes to a bit more desire (but ilke i say, I've not seen the recent games, so can't comment - any views and information gratefully received).

Anyway, I got to wondering how our remaining 14 league games could go...
I think 7 or 8 points should see us safe, and i don't think that should be too much trouble to achieve
If we were to win 4, draw 5, lose 5 of our remaining 14 we would end up on 69 points. Last season that would have seen us 9th, the season before 8th. I think that kind of form is possible, so i'm hoping (and quietly predicting) a top 10 finish, which isn't too bad in ALs first season.
For to finish 7th (based on the past 2 seasons final standings) we would need to get to 75 points. 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses seems a bit too much of an ask to me. but if we re-created our pre FA Cup game form then its possible.

So, for me, i think we can finish in the top 10. What are others genuine views for the remaining games?

wokingcardinal
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Re: How many points?

Post by wokingcardinal » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:14 pm

I honestly think 6 points will be enough for safety. It's been a steady first season for an unproven manager, sometimes we have been great other times we have been awful, but if AL can learn from those games, I am looking forward to next season football wise (ignoring all the off pitch BS!)
Its funny how the "guaranteed relagation and can't see where the next point is coming from" posts and posters have been very quiet?! Some people love a bit of misery I guess!!

H Card
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Re: How many points?

Post by H Card » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:22 pm

For me having Stanton back (and fit) has helped steady our defence (although there were a few hairraising moments on Sat), plus there has also been an element of luck that was missing in our bad run. Having someone smaller up front has also stopped us hitting it long at every opportunity and our passing game has improved as a result.

I still don't feel we are out of the woods yet (and with other teams around us picking up points as well) however I feel better then I did before Gateshead.

gth1292
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Re: How many points?

Post by gth1292 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:44 pm

It's been a strange old season in many ways and if we were to pick up 6-7 points in the next four games, which is entirely possible considering the opposition, our year could pretty much be over by early March. AL will have learnt a lot from his first season in charge which has been the transitional year it needed to be. In reality we're not as strong as our early season form had us believe, neither are we as bad as our horror run suggested over the last couple of months, and a top-half finish would be a solid return with a new and inexperienced manager.

The important thing now is that we keep hold of our better players and start building something for next season so we can have a real go at the top seven. If we could keep say 10 of the current crop it gives a much more solid foundation to go from and with the right additions and maybe the takeover out of the way we can go into the new season with a positive feel around the place. We can dream anyway.

Red and White Army
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Re: How many points?

Post by Red and White Army » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:42 pm

wokingcardinal wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:14 pm
I honestly think 6 points will be enough for safety. It's been a steady first season for an unproven manager, sometimes we have been great other times we have been awful, but if AL can learn from those games, I am looking forward to next season football wise (ignoring all the off pitch BS!)
Its funny how the "guaranteed relagation and can't see where the next point is coming from" posts and posters have been very quiet?! Some people love a bit of misery I guess!!
1 win in about 16 league games does justify a bit of “I can’t see where the next win is coming from”. No one said we were guaranteed to get relegated.

Agree with the others, top half wouldn’t be a bad season especially with the decent cup run. I’m interested to see how Grego-Cox gets on the rest of the season and whether he can add some goals to his recent form - looks promising.

Dan
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Re: How many points?

Post by Dan » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:59 pm

wokingcardinal wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:14 pm
I honestly think 6 points will be enough for safety. It's been a steady first season for an unproven manager, sometimes we have been great other times we have been awful, but if AL can learn from those games, I am looking forward to next season football wise (ignoring all the off pitch BS!)
Its funny how the "guaranteed relagation and can't see where the next point is coming from" posts and posters have been very quiet?! Some people love a bit of misery I guess!!
As eluded to above, I think supporters had every right to voice their discontent as we stank the place out at times during that horror run. We went out of the Trophy without a fight, lost twice to Aldershot, barely looked like having a shot against Tranmere and then got twatted at Solihull. Even the most optimistic of fan would have started looking over their shoulder at the relegation pack.

As it is, I think the signings of Cook, Lathrope and in particular Greco-Cox has freshened things up a bit and the team look better for it, so credit where it's due there Karl. I think having RGC up there rather than a 6ft4 unit takes away the temptation to punt it up forward at will.

jonwoozley
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Re: How many points?

Post by jonwoozley » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:43 pm

As it is, I think the signings of Cook, Lathrope and in particular Greco-Cox has freshened things up a bit and the team look better for it, so credit where it's due there Karl. I think having RGC up there rather than a 6ft4 unit takes away the temptation to punt it up forward at will.
[/quote]

Fully agree. You can judge a manager by his signings and AL has rarely got it wrong, if at all. His tactics have been suspect at times though. Especially away. Losing the ball on the edge of our own area has been frustrating.

The weakest players are his inherited ones, Fabio stands out as a disappointment. Joey Montana's win stats too, there's definitely a link with hoofing it aimlessly and not winning.

We have had a league winning team but just not at the same time:
Baxter,
Caprice?
Staunton
Wynter
Ralph
Lathrope
Murtagh
Goddard
RCC
Holman
Rendell
This team would take us up.
The most loyal fan to miss Wembley 1994.
Author of "we've got Dereck Brown........Yes! "

gth1292
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Re: How many points?

Post by gth1292 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:24 am

If we're looking ahead to next season who are people hoping / expecting us to keep hold of from the playing squad?

At the moment, I would go... Staunton, Wynter, Young, Ferdinand, Isaac, Carter, Lathrope, Banton (as he's on a 2 year deal). I'd like Grego-Cox and Cook too if we could get them. Mason and Nsimbi will probably continue with the academy and be on the fringes. I'd be happy to see Appau and Lazar back for at least pre-season to see how they're progressing.

I think Ralph will go and I'd be surprised currently if we retained Joey, Orlu, or Saraiva. Although there's obviously still time for any of them to prove me wrong - particularly Joey, as there is a good player in there somewhere, but AL certainly hasn't seen the best of him.

Of the other loanees, we've not seen enough of Edwards yet, Ramsay hasn't done much since his original injury, whilst Baxter and RCC will probably be looking to step up another level.

Thoughts?

Red and White Army
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Re: How many points?

Post by Red and White Army » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:13 pm

The thing is when you look at individual players, it seems we have a decent team. Noting the exceptions you made above in Jones, Orlu and Saraiva. It's obvious now why Saraiva was playing at Ryman level, unfortunately. I'm not sure Young is *that* good but hes fairly solid as a reserve RB which he was signed to be. But we had decent individual players during our horror run from November - January.

Makes you think what caused us to suddenly become shit. Tactics? Maybe but i dont think they were that different from the begginning of the season when we were in the top 5. Unless teams just slowly worked us out.

Maybe lacking a Rendell type 20 goal a season striker but those arent exactly easy to find. Makes you appreciate Garry doing it with Rendell, Holman and Ugwu and even Bubb to a lesser extent.

We should be safe now and as mentioned AL will have learned a lot from this season.

In classic footballers twitter speak.. "WE GO AGAIN".

Kanu's Nan
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Re: How many points?

Post by Kanu's Nan » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:32 pm

Why wouldn’t you retain Orlu? He does what he says on the tin.
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PatsWFC
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Re: How many points?

Post by PatsWFC » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:39 pm

gth1292 wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:24 am
If we're looking ahead to next season who are people hoping / expecting us to keep hold of from the playing squad?

At the moment, I would go... Staunton, Wynter, Young, Ferdinand, Isaac, Carter, Lathrope, Banton (as he's on a 2 year deal). I'd like Grego-Cox and Cook too if we could get them. Mason and Nsimbi will probably continue with the academy and be on the fringes. I'd be happy to see Appau and Lazar back for at least pre-season to see how they're progressing.

I think Ralph will go and I'd be surprised currently if we retained Joey, Orlu, or Saraiva. Although there's obviously still time for any of them to prove me wrong - particularly Joey, as there is a good player in there somewhere, but AL certainly hasn't seen the best of him.

Of the other loanees, we've not seen enough of Edwards yet, Ramsay hasn't done much since his original injury, whilst Baxter and RCC will probably be looking to step up another level.

Thoughts?
Would agree with most of those names apart from Ferdinand- I'd let him go, like his passing he'll only go sideways or backwards.
Really not arsed at all about Banton but like you say, 2yr deal means we're likely to be stuck with him

FanFromThe90's
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Re: How many points?

Post by FanFromThe90's » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:54 pm

I'd like to see more of Bawling, to be able to make a decision on him. Agree regarding Banton, he hasn't lived up to expectation, but maybe he'll have a blinding season next year......
I like Matt Young, he always gives 110%, and i think getting a good run in his preferred position could kick on his development, so i'd like to see him back next season.
Ferdinand i'd take back, but wouldn't be too disappointed if he left.
If i could have anyone back next year it would be Baxter. assuming he does go to play at a higher level i think we may struggle to find a replacement as good as him.

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Re: How many points?

Post by Cjs » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:26 pm

Once we have nothing to play for, we should play Lazar, Appau, Nsimbi and maybe Mason for an indication of next season. We must keep Staunton and Wynter to establish into one of the best CB partnerships in the League. I think we would be very lucky to keep Baxter, deserves league football and IMO one of the best keepers in the league.

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Re: How many points?

Post by JAM » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:54 pm

I believe that Josh is also on a 2 year contract. I agree that if we can keep him and Wynter as a solid CB partnership, with 2 of Ferdinand, Issac and Lathorpe in front of them, that's the start of a solid spine. Banton, with a good pre season, could be a big player next year, and would also like to see more of RGC and Cook. I also like Young, good solid full back.
we will require a LB as Ralph wont be staying, and obviously someone who is going to get close to 20 goals a season (if that isn't RGC). Add a keeper, and that's a good base to build from, especially with the youngsters as back up.

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Re: How many points?

Post by gth1292 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:55 pm

Interesting replies, thanks all. Regarding those that have been mentioned...

Young - I like. Gives it everything and can play on either side. He's probably played more games than expected this year due to Ramsay's injury problems. He probably won't be first choice but a good squad player.

Orlu - has had decent games but obviously has some issues. If we retain Staunton and Wynter, I doubt he'll be comfortable with being a squad player, and as he's also likely to be one of our higher earners I can envisage a mutual agreement he's better off elsewhere.

Ferdinand - I'm convinced there is still more to come from him. I can see why some would not be impressed but you do need some less fashionable players to keep you ticking over. As a near ever-present this season I also think AL values him quite highly. Would be surprised if he went.

Banton - we can only hope that he manages to stay fit (or more fit than this season) and turns in some performances. He's certainly capable.

Bawling - I'd honestly forgotten him in my original post. Pretty rare to see a player retained at this level after an injury-ravaged season (think Kretzschmar), unless they were one of your top players beforehand, and I could see him being let go. Agree that I would like to see more though.

Lurker
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Re: How many points?

Post by Lurker » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:43 pm

gth1292 wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:24 am
we've not seen enough of Edwards yet
I've seen enough of him, thanks!

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Re: How many points?

Post by cardtrick » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:54 pm

Back to the points discussion - when we were in our really bad run and had 35 points ( and no wins for ages ) I went (pessimistically) through all the remaining games after Solihull and had us finishing on 54 points. The Fylde victory immediately boosted that to 57 points and I predicted a win against Chester. With the improved form, growing confidence and players getting fit I would think 60 is easily achievable and if things go well even more.

The only thing I would say about 75 being top 7 form is that the bottom 5 or 6 are much more cut adrift than last year so it could take more than that and we have a big gap to make up

So something to go for - who knows - but mid table is the most likely finishing position

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Re: How many points?

Post by Reading Card » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:40 pm

Whilst we dominated the Chester game they came pretty close to scoring at the end ( granted sending off fudged the game) .

We need to become more efficient at finishing teams off and holding out the game. We looked much better and balanced but lets face it before the last two games we were freaking terrible. We need depth, a bigger squad and some experienced players (like Lathrope) . Injuries , inexperience , the cup run and key players leaving has finished us this season.

Considering have lost RCC , Ward , Effiong, Philpot ( who I think we under estimated) its no wonder we have taken a big step back. Those four players could walk in to most conference teams.

I will reserve my final judgement until the last kick of the season !

Meerkat
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Re: How many points?

Post by Meerkat » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:18 pm

We weren’t terrible for most of those games
Philpot worked hard but is now on loan at Welling, which says something

Trust-in-The-Hill
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Re: How many points?

Post by Trust-in-The-Hill » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:28 pm

Realistically about 5 pointa to stay up and 30 plus to make play offs.

Either very unlikely so time to look on to full time football next season.

Red and White Army
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Re: How many points?

Post by Red and White Army » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:43 pm

Meerkat wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:18 pm
We weren’t terrible for most of those games
Philpot worked hard but is now on loan at Welling, which says something
I would say we were terrible at Dover, Solihull & Aldershot and at home to Maidenhead (trophy), Guiseley & Barrow. So that's at least 6 games.

Not many teams except for Hyde in 13-14 are terrible in the majority of games.

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Re: How many points?

Post by Waylander » Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:01 pm

Trust-in-The-Hill wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:28 pm
Realistically about 5 pointa to stay up and 30 plus to make play offs.

Either very unlikely so time to look on to full time football next season.
are you really saying you don't think we can get 5 more points !!

Red and White Army
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Re: How many points?

Post by Red and White Army » Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:09 pm

Waylander wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:01 pm
Trust-in-The-Hill wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:28 pm
Realistically about 5 pointa to stay up and 30 plus to make play offs.

Either very unlikely so time to look on to full time football next season.
are you really saying you don't think we can get 5 more points !!
Not if you factor in the 10 point deduction for hooliganism.

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Re: How many points?

Post by JAM » Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:14 pm

I was wondering why we wouldn't get the 5 points to stay up, but still go FT next season even if we were in the NL South.

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Re: How many points?

Post by Trust-in-The-Hill » Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:29 pm

Waylander wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:01 pm
Trust-in-The-Hill wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:28 pm
Realistically about 5 pointa to stay up and 30 plus to make play offs.

Either very unlikely so time to look on to full time football next season.
are you really saying you don't think we can get 5 more points !!
Not at all Waylander.

Like I said think it is very unlikely will get less than 5 points.


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